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Do any of you foresee a crypto being widely adopted as a general purpose payment coin? nano, btc, btccash etc (take your pick). I think it won't happen for reasons in this post. What do you think?
What do you all think of payment coins in general? I've got a list of points why this wont happen, i mentioned them in the thread on this sub, asking if btc deserves its market cap. Figured it might deserve its own post. I think a payment coin (btc, nano, btccash, etc) being widely adopted as an alternative to fiat payment wont happen for the following reasons:
cryptos are volatile in value relative to your fiat. if you intended to use it as general payment e.g. buying coffee or a laptop online. the fluctuations in value especially crashes really suck, especially if you have large sums of money there. oh i cant buy that laptop now because my crypto has fallen by 30%. Satoshi said that volatitily would stabalise over time with btc, but i disagree with this, just my opinion, its been 9 years of btc with high volatility, with very few using for adoption in gen payment, btc does 200k transactions a day, its mainly investors and people using it as a trading pair for alts on exchanges.
you have no charge backs like with a credit card or pay pal if the merchant does something wrong. so why would i use a payment coin that has no chargebacks if there is no cost advantage? the visa fee is something like 2-3% more if its forex. however the merchant eats the fee. even if the merchant offered a discount for using crypto to buy something, point 1 is still a huge issue, and the savings the merchant would offer probably would not be enough incentive e.g. 2-3% in most cases.
with cryptos, you need to be your own bank, securing cryptos isn't hard, but not user friendly to people who are not tech literate, however big strides have been made there with easy to use wallets. However there is still the potential for phishing, losing keys etc. VISA card, no problem, call up the bank, cancel the card get a new one. The bank will refund any money spent by someone who stole you card, at least here in Australia.
most payment coins are not not fungible e.g. btc except monero, this means that the btc you used can be traced back to some nefarious activity, a drug deal etc. this could land you in hot water, but not likely. however it would give pause for adoption by merchants. e.g. people could be laundering btc through them to say buy macbook pros and sell them on ebay.
in the case of btc and public block chains as soon you spend BTC, people know your wallet address, they now know your balance. even if you try to hide your balance with multiple wallets and transfers, block chain analysis will find where the jackpot is. if they are motivated to do so, perhaps they know you might have a lot of btc for example. coin mixers no longer work. this is a huge problem. monero does not have this problem however as do some of the other private payment coins.
in the case of btc, it has slow confirmation times and expensive transaction fees, though this could be fixed with LN. other payment coins like nano do not have this problem, thought i would still add this as a point. i guess this is not really a point to stop adoption. but i added it here as people generally only know about btc.
we can see in the case of BTC, it was never really adopted for general payment. most use it as an investment, to buy alts, or people who choose to use it as payment over fiat if its available, id classify these people as being enthusiastic about using crypto, but you can see in the case of BTC, over the years, most people didnt use it for this purpose. btc was used in darknets however. this is why i invested in monero as i saw the flaws in btc (lack of annonymity, and fungibility) and figured darknets would eventually adopt monero in the long term.
didnt add this in my first post, but a problem i have with payment coins is that they are also deflationary as they have a fixed supply. libetarians love the idea of hard money that can not be printed, but i think most have not studied up on modern economics and different schools of thought; Keynesian principles are the dominant thinking, the money supply should expand with the increased goods and services produced in the economy i.e. increases in gdp should ideally expand the money supply. You also have the austrian school that stipulates that gold or a fixed supply asset tied to money is better, i dont really agree but they do bring up some good points in some respects with smoothing the economic boom / busts, but i wasnt sold. deflation in a payment crypto is bad, it encourages hording as the value will go up as more people are chasing less btc as an example. you want moderate inflation as it would actually encourage people to spend or invest as holding onto the crypto would see a steady loss of 2-3% a year, omitting price volatility i mentioned in point 1. perhaps the volatility however would be less with inflationary coins. this was a problem with the gold standard and why they abandoned it. this is a controversial topic. as many people believe that governments are stealing money via inflation through seigniorage i..e they print it first so they get the most value before it gets further inflated. this is really more applicable to countries who print money to fund their government, which isnt applicable to modern economies. it is an issue in some countries with very high inflation that do just this.
ive mentioned monero. (not trying to shill here, insert other private payment coin here) it has the flaws of point 1 which is huge, so wont be adopted widely for general payment. however its fungible, people cant look up how much you own. transactions are anonymous. so even with the problem with point 1. privacy even at a cost has value and good use cases. hiding money from the govt, transferring it overseas. nefarious activities, e.g. buying drugs online. but those are niche use cases. so i dont ever see monero or another private coin being adopted for general payment either. if a payment coin can some how exist in the future where it resolves the points i mentioned e.g. holding its value to fiat, then id be interested. however maintaining the value of a crypto relative to fiat would require financial instruments like hedging which would increase the cost of using the crypto for payment thus potentially making it moot for general payment for any cost advantage. the charge back problem could be solved by say a company providing an equivalent type of crypto credit card without credit (or with credit), but this would incur cost of using the crypto, banks make this money back with interest, which is very high, credit cards its 25% or so in Australia. So given all these points, and the above paragraph where i see the only feasible way a general payment coin can exist (which would render using crypto in the first place pointless). do you agree? or think that its possible for the wide adoption of a crypto for general payment? edit, i realise that there is more to crypto then payment which many cite without addressing my points, i find payment coins the least promising out of them. dApps and remittance focused coins for sure. other platform based ones like oyster too, perhaps icon and ark but i need to get a better understanding of them. right now i own xrp, xlm, xmr, ada, eth, prl, iota (possibly payment yes, but has data storage on the tangle thus is useful in other protocols as its ideal for static data storage and retrieval e..g video streaming, oyster pearl is using the tangle for just this reason), neo and ont.
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